Amid heightened international anti-dumping pressure, China's monthly steel exports neared an all-time high in October – but still, much more production will be needed to give rise to ailing iron ore prices. With some 11.18 million tonnes of steel reportedly shipped in the 10th month of the year, no larger amount has been exported in a single calendar month since the all-time record high of 11.25Mt in September 2015.
Milder contractions of around 8% or 2% year on year could correspond to support of $90/t and $100/t, respectively.Dhar sees the milder contraction as more likely. "While it's true that markets were underwhelmed with China's stimulus measures, the addition RMB 6 trillion in debt swaps offered to local governments will mean budgeted expenditure has a chance to be delivered," he said.