Donald Trump’s recent tariff proposals—10 percent on all imports, potentially rising to 20 percent, and 60 percent on Chinese goods—have set off an all-too-familiarIn the fevered imaginations of Trump’s policies, tariffs threaten to bring global trade to its knees, provoke retaliatory measures, and hit consumers with higher prices. The ghost ofof 1930 looms large, ready to serve as the ultimate cautionary tale.
Moreover, while Smoot-Hawley did raise duties on thousands of imported goods—mostly agricultural—its overall effect on U.S. imports was modest. According to economist Douglas Irwin, the. The more significant decline in global trade during this period was largely driven by collapsing demand due to deflation and economic mismanagement.
Many nations did not retaliate against Smoot-Hawley, and the tariffs that were implemented in supposed retaliation would likely have been enacted regardless. The notion that the trade policies of other countries were formed in reaction to U.S. tariffs lacks historical evidence to support it and is likely just the product of, for example, the agricultural sector faced mounting challenges during the Great Depression.
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