China Luxury Goods Market to Grow 48% This Year, Says Bain and Tmall

SHANGHAI — The luxury goods market in mainland China will likely achieve 48 percent growth in 2020, reaching nearly 346 billion renminbi, or $52.8 billion, according to a joint report by Bain and Tmall released Wednesday, doubling China’s overall share of the global luxury market this year.

In the luxury beauty category, e-commerce grew by about 60 percent for the year to October and online penetration will increase from about 28 percent in 2019 to about 38 percent in 2020, driven by skin care and fragrance. The luxury fashion and lifestyle category, starting from a small base, has grown by more than 100 percent for the year to October and is expected to increase online penetration from about 5 percent in 2019 to about 7 percent in 2020.

“Price comparisons show that Hainan-listed duty-free prices for fashion and lifestyle goods can be 10 to 25 percent more competitive than official mainland-listed prices. For luxury beauty, those numbers jump to 25 to 40 percent,” the study said.

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