Consensus is for world economic growth to rebound this year above 5%, while Refinitiv I/B/E/S forecasts that 2021 earnings will expand 38% and 21% in Europe and the United States respectively.
The question is which country will be first to vaccinate 60%-70% of its population - the threshold generally seen as conferring herd immunity, where factories, bars and hotels can safely reopen. Delays could necessitate more stimulus from governments and central banks. “It is harder in the eurozone, the outlook is a bit more cloudy there as it looks like it will take longer to get herd immunity , ” he added.
The United States, which started vaccinating its population last month, is also ahead of most other major economies with its vaccination rollout running at a rate of about five per 100. “All moves depend now on the lower pace of infections, ” Peterson said. “If that reverts, we have to go back to investing in US tech stocks for good or for bad.”In a separate development, bitcoin slumped 10% to a 10-day low before paring some of its losses Thursday as traders feared tighter US regulations.
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