A move by the U.S. on Friday to help ease Europe’s reliance on energy from Russia will likely help transform natural gas to a more global market over the long run, but may have little impact on immediate supplies to Europe.
The natural-gas market has historically been a more regional one, given that the commodity is transported via pipeline, or converted to liquefied natural gas, or LNG, to ship it overseas. When LNG tankers reach their destination, the LNG is stored in cryogenic tanks before it’s returned to its gaseous state.
U.S. market prices remain mostly “insulated,” but “in our view, we are learning the dynamics of a new era for gas,” Louney said. The Russia-driven energy crisis in Europe is “leading to plans like REPowerEU, Germany securing long term Qatari LNG contracts, the rise of U.S. LNG exports, and business leaders calling for a Marshall Plan for U.S. and EU energy security,” he said.
“LNG terminals require long-term contracts to support their financing and the LNG is sold under long term contracts,” she explained. “This means that most of the LNG for export is already contracted for a long time to come, so shippers would face massive breach of contract litigation.” Still, there’s one bright spot for Europe, she said, with a new underwater pipeline being built between Norway and Poland that’s expected to go into service by October 2022. “There will be additional gas for the upcoming winter,” Sewell said.