Even with a far weaker growth outlook and price increases primarily driven by supply factors, policy makers intensified their aggression with a three-quarter-point increase on Thursday that was an unprecedented monetary-tightening step. The decision matched analyst expectations and brought the deposit rate up to 0.75%.
Money-market investors boosted wagers on further ECB tightening, with bets of another 75 basis-point move in October reaching 40%.“The September hike brings the deposit rate to 0.75% from 0%. We had expected the level to be increased to 1.50% by year-end — that’s our estimate of neutral. However, the statement and the press conference suggest it will end the tightening cycle higher than that, perhaps at 2.25% in February.
Thursday’s decision highlights how ECB hawks have hardened their grip on the 25-member Governing Council, emboldened by another overshoot in inflation last month to 9.1% — more than four times the goal.
Inflation is a whimsical mechanism that permits the unilateral increase in prices of basic goods because of sentiment. Mainly, it’s investors on the stock exchange who fear losses, get jittery & rally privately for price increases to cover their fear. No science or math here.
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