Recession will be necessary to rebalance the oil market

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Restoring spare capacity to more comfortable levels will require a business-cycle downturn

In common with inventories of crude and products, and new oilfields with rapid development times, under-utilised oil wells and refineries act as shock absorbers in the global petroleum system.

As a result, spare global production capacity has shrunk and is equivalent to just 1.5% of global consumption, according to Saudi Aramco. Large increases in stocks of crude and fuels occurred as a result of recessions in 2001/02, 2008/09 and 2020, and mid-cycle slowdowns in 1997/98 and 2014/15. Recessions in 1974, 1980, 2008 and 2020 all left oil production and consumption on a permanently lower trajectory than before.

In each case, inventories continued to deplete and spare capacity continued to fall, resulting in consistent upward pressure on prices, until the next business cycle slowdown occurred.

 

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'Rebalance the oil market'? That's where the motivation is?And all other factors suffer? Geez Cut the chord already

Lol They shove the 'you will be poorer and will struggle ' down your throat.... and they want you to be happy.

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