Jeffrey Kleintop, chief global investment strategist at Charles Schwab, expects a similar reversal in the labor market later in 2023, once the lagged effect of monetary policy tightening takes hold.
Data aggregated by Charles Schwab showed that in U.S. corporate earnings since the start of this year, phrases relating to workforce reductions began to exceed those relating to labor shortages for the first time since mid-2021.Kleintop also cited tighter lending conditions as contributing to a weaker jobs outlook, pointing to a "clear and intuitive leading relationship between banks' lending standards and job growth.
Falling demand for labor will be the main driver of further reversals over the next three to four quarters, Moody's suggested on Friday, while rising borrowing costs for firms and households will reduce hiring intensity, consumer spending and economic activity over the course of the year.