US stocks ended Thursday in the green but gave up the biggest gains of the day as investors assessed the outlook for monetary policy on the back ofThe Dow Jones Industrial Average was up nearly 450 points at one point earlier in the session before selling off as the day went on.
Investors are at odds over whether July's inflation data, which showed prices rose at a slower pace than expected but still faster than what was clocked in June, is enough for the Federal Reserve to make its long-awaited dovish pivot. "[W]e think the July CPI report adds weight to the case for a September pause. However, what is good enough for a pause is unlikely to be the same as what is good enough for a cut," analysts from BNP Paribas wrote in a note.
While a pause would be welcomed by stock market investors, inflation falling closer to the Fed's 2% target is what would be needed to solidify the outlook for interest rate cuts by the first quarter of next year, observers say. That could also coincide with what many believe will be a mild US recession in the early part of 2024.
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