Of course, if you enjoy listening to Fed speakers, and Raphael Bostic is your Favorite Fed official, and you are often caught walking around town wearing his jersey on the weekends and Atlanta Fed cap, then you are in luck.
Fed Governor Chris Waller is also going to have a busy week. He will discuss the economic outlook at 9 AM ET on Tuesday and then spread his hawkish wings on Friday when he talks about R* at 9:35 AM ET. I would be surprised if he didn’t mention R*, otherwise known as the neutral rate, on Friday as being higher than previously thought.
If copper is correct, and ISM service and manufacturing prices surge higher in May and June, then team disinflation is in big trouble. If monetary policy were restrictive and R* was as low as some think it is, then what we see in copper prices right now, or for that matter, in all asset prices, would not be happening.to surge, and that looks like it may be close to happening, too. Oil has seen its RSI break a downtrend and start moving up, while prices have held on to support at $78.50.
This past week, we also saw a jump in shipping rates based on the WCI Composite Freight Benchmark. So right now, we have metal prices and shipping rates going higher, energy prices on the verge of going higher, with an already hot services inflation, and you have to wonder where inflation rates will be in 2 or 3 months times if these trends in commodities continue to move higher or get stuck at present levels.