The incumbent U.S. president isn't accepting crypto donations .asking who will win the popular vote,"yes" shares for President Joe Biden are trading at 56 cents, indicating the market sees a 56% chance of the incumbent prevailing. Each share pays out $1 if the prediction comes true, and zero if it does not.
The college consists of 538 electors. A majority of 270 electors' votes is required to win the presidency. Each state has the same number of electors as it does members in its Congressional delegation: one for each member of the House of Representatives plus two Senators.. This much seems certain: If the Polymarket bettors are right and Trump does win the electoral college while losing the popular vote,"Not My President" rallies will be back in vogue.
If Biden is weighing the option as claimed, it's still possible an announcement could come later. That's one of the risks of prediction markets: It's possible to make a bet that's directionally correct butA Polymarket contract on that mystery resolved to"no" on Sunday but that decision was disputed. It resolved again to"no" and was disputed a second time. A final review is ongoing. It is expected to be closed Tuesday.