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First three weeks of the year can be an emerging-market red herring

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“This year, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index entered bull market after it crossed key technical thresholds in the middle of last month, buoyed by the prospect of a preliminary trade deal between the US and China.”

In 1999, the MSCI gauge made a faltering start after the missteps of the previous year, including a debt default in Russia and a government collapse in Turkey. But the year ended up with a runaway rally as the dotcom boom peaked.

In 2000, the opposite occurred. Stocks kept advancing into the New Year, but a sell-off in late January was an omen of the dotcom bust that really began in April.A massive rebound of 11 per cent in the first three weeks fizzled as the US economy contracted.Even though the Federal Reserve had taken its benchmark interest rates close to zero in December 2008 and unleashed its first quantitative easing, the pessimism surrounding the financial crisis lingered well into January.

Truth be told, early January trading hasn't always been a dud. It correctly predicted full-year moves on the following occasions:

 

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