Assessing the stock market after one of the fastest declines and subsequent comebacks in history

The market has made a head-spinning round-trip, but in other ways has gone nowhere: The S&P 500 has been sideways in a range for about a month near levels first reached in early 2018.

Anyone buttressing a positive case by claiming "Everyone's bearish" and those calling for deep downside on the notion that "Everyone is too bullish" are equally unreliable at the moment.Johannes Eisele | AFP via Getty ImagesFor investors, trying to gauge sentiment among other investors and traders is a constant undertaking, a way to sort out what bets are popular, which themes are played out and where lies the index direction that would cause the greatest surprise.

The market has made a head-spinning round-trip, but in other ways has gone nowhere: The S&P has been sideways in a range for about a month near levels first reached in early 2018. About half of all large stocks are down more than 30% from their high, and yet in aggregate the S&P carries its highest valuation based on forecast one-year earnings since 2002.

The weekly American Association of Individual Investors poll last week showed bearish respondents numbered more than 50%, twice those saying they were bullish on stocks over the next six months. Bears have exceeded 50% for three of the last four weeks, quite unusual, especially when the S&P is pretty distant from its lows both in price and time.

It came back, when?

Translation....large traders put all their money in big tech which is safer than bonds. Now that those are at peak valuation they're sitting on their hands.

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