Bear market rally or new bull? Breaking down the market after another winning week

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Going by the conventional Wall Street definition, the S&P 500 will remain in a bear market unless and until the index recovers to the February high.

Nearly 70% of the participants in Bank of America's monthly global fund manager survey called the recent rebound a bear market rally.A man walks past the Wall Street Charging Bull in New York, the United States, March 24, 2020.How are we to characterize this stock-market struggle of the past three months and beyond?dropped more than 20% from its high, which it did on the way to a fast 35% decline over five weeks.

Another way to capture the experience of an underwater market and quantify the wear and tear it takes on public psychology and portfolio values is how long the market stays at more than a 10% deficit to its peak level. Stephen Suttmeier, technician at BofA, knits together the contrasting views of this phase by pointing to previous long-running – or "secular" bull markets beginning at a "generational low" which had a severe retrenchment in their seventh year, including 1957 and 1987.

This was a guillotine slice of more than $10 trillion in market cap from an all-time peak brought about by a pandemic and public-policy responses to it. A rare, if not unprecedented, situation.

 

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Don’t understand the focus on ‘the market’. It won’t go anywhere will it? We have many companies in it failing or with severely reduced revenue and many others have demand through the roof. Isn’t this a time for stock pickers? Who cares what ‘the market’ does.

New bull as long as COVID-19 is under control!

Tech $qqq remains in a bull market while $spy is neither bull or bear currently

How is a bull market when the market has been sideways the last few weeks? We haven’t moved much since 4/29.

1 in 4 Americans unemployed is “winning”?

Why not report about FED injecting $B's daily. Buying junk bonds like Uber, helping prop up share price. No logical reason to be bullish on apps. Why are pension funds buying junk? An investigation/lawsuit is coming when these funds lose their shirt. Housing crisis with new face!

Who risks $$$? Who buys something over priced? Just inside information? Could it be that the world only lives on greed and lies? Or take advantage of how easy and free the Fed gives us? If we do not correct the mistakes of the past, the future will not have a happy ending.

This isn't a new market. Its the same one as before. It should be named the Federal Reserve market.

In modelling COVID19 we used average viral load of 3k particles per cough/sneeze R0 3 in neural model of time frames cases deaths transmissions changes across various regions. Second wave began May 15 peak July 30 lows Sept 8 58% fewer wave 2 cases

Deteriorating fundamentals. Patience is a must for markets

I do see bulls weakening and a pull back before climbing to newer highs. On the other hand there is the FED...

90% of professionals now dont even know what a bear market feels like. Markets are so manipulated by Fed investors have no idea what real risk is and wouldnt know what do without fed safety net.

Bullish 🚀🚀🚀🚀

I think there is another bounce in there. I guess we'll see.

Well we all know what camp you are in you permabull cry baby charlatans

Don’t forget... : BRRRRRRRRRRRRRR

Priced in gold, stocks have done nothing over the past 5 years. It's the great illusion of wealth erosion and will continue.

Too bad GDP won't resemble that stock chart. The stock jockeys are high on the hopium.

Looks like VIX below 31 made the investor comfortable for upside turn. However the economy decides everything- job, business, PMI, Consumer Confidence etc.

Retail and new traders are going to get hosed. I feel bad. Any perma bull here is delusional. Hope is not a strategy. Manage risk accordingly.

Bear market:

It’s a bull market and will be here to stay

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