There are less-apparent hurdles the bulls will have to clear over the next several weeks related to the broader supply and demand for stocks.
The obvious thing working against this upbeat set-up are the burden of record Covid-case growth and the economic drag of health-related suppression measures.in a narrow and tightly coiling range in the past two weeks, unable to use good vaccine news to push to new records but so far without much net damage done to the broader up trend.
JP Morgan last week estimated some $160 billion globally in net selling potential in stocks into year end from balanced mutual funds, which maintain a fixed stock-bond mix. This can be made a smoother process through index-fund managers' sophisticated execution systems, but it would mean a drag.was the last comparably big new index member in early 2010. Its market cap was just under $200 billion, in an S&P 500 whose total value was about one-third as large. The market was choppy in the weeks around Berkshire's entry but not notably because of it.
As shown here, halfway through the fourth quarter, total equity issuance is running far ahead of prior fourth quarters, according to Dealogic.Some $60 billion of the total has been raised by SPACs, or special purpose acquisition companies, which simply collect cash from investors to buy a private company. The forward calendar for deals is pretty full, and sizable IPOs are poised to debut from Airbnb, Roblox and several more newcomers.
Cantor Fitzgerald strategist Eric Johnston last week turned "tactically bearish" on stocks, expecting a pullback before the market heads to further highs in coming months, based largely on positioning and sentiment gauges. Among them, total short interest on the New York Stock Exchange hitting a six-year low.
Boring. There's always hurdles that could trip up the markets.
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