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Why did the stock market sell off? Falling bond yields point to ‘growth scare’

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Have investors swapped fears of surging inflation for worries about stalling global economic growth? Perhaps, but there’s still a lot of optimism about prospects for corporate earnings and the economy in the months ahead.

Those apparent growth fears, however, were holding sway on Thursday. An unrelenting rally in longer-term U.S. Treasury prices continued to hammer down yields, sending the 10-year rate TMUBMUSD10Y, 1.359% to a five-month low below 1.25%. As investors sought safety in the long end of the bond market, stocks tumbled, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +1.30% down more than 500 points at its session low.

“Our working theory is that we’re in the middle of a modest global growth scare…,” wrote Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, in a Thursday note. And yields on foreign government bonds have also fallen, with the 10-year German bund yield TMBMKDE-10Y, -0.289% falling to -0.3% through Wednesday from -0.11%, while the Japanese 10-year yield TMBMKJP-10Y, 0.030% dropped to 0.04% from 0.09% at the end of May.

 

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