Microsoft earnings: It's the forecast that matters, so be patient

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Microsoft's all-important forecast is expected to come during a conference call Tuesday, a couple of hours after its earnings report is released.

Microsoft MSFT, -0.59% is scheduled to report fiscal fourth-quarter financial results after the bell, wrapping up yet another record year for profit and revenue, with annual earnings expected to increase nearly 20% and sales expected to produce roughly 18% gains. Most of the drama in the numbers was removed when Microsoft executives warned in early June that earnings would come in lower than expected, with roughly a month to go in the quarter.

What to expect Earnings: Analysts on average expect earnings of $2.29 a share, according to FactSet, down from $2.33 a share expected before Microsoft revised its outlook. That would still be an increase from $2.17 a share reported in the fiscal fourth quarter a year ago. The stock has declined 23% so far in 2022, as of the end of Monday’s trading session, while the S&P 500 index SPX, +0.13% has dropped 16.1% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.28% — which counts Microsoft as a component — has fallen 12.2%.

Second, they believe Microsoft needs to “de-risk the outlook for FX, PCs and a weakening consumer,” without offering many ideas for how executives would accomplish that feat. Third, they believe Microsoft executives need to maintain their guidance for double-digit growth in operating income, though they will accept if executives add the caveat that it would only be in “constant currency,” which factors out the strengthening dollar.

 

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