Why the market’s relief rally looks like it’s over

Strategists have cautioned that the recent recovery across equity markets was temporary and shares will likely continue to pull back as the global economy deteriorates in the face of rising rates and elevated inflation.P 500 index has surged an even more impressive 12.9 per cent. However, both benchmarks’ retreat this week illustrates that a reversal could already be underway.

While acknowledging that the Australian sharemarket’s recovery has been impressive, UBS analyst Richard Schellbach has beenHe notes that analysts have continued to reduce their estimates on corporate earnings growth. Meanwhile, economists have been further downgrading their economic growth projections for 2023.

Schellbach says that highly valued growth stocks, which had rebounded strongly, would be hit particularly hard, as would companies exposed to domestic retail and property. While acknowledging that short-term uncertainty remains elevated, Oliver highlights that shares are likely to be stronger on a 12-month view as central banks stop hiking and move to cutting rates, and a recession is likely avoided.

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