The stability of the international government-bond market matters more to central bankers than stemming inflation, according to an expert in global money flows.hile Wall Street, and Twitter’s legion of Wall Street wannabes, are busy predicting when the Federal Reserve will call it quits on rate hikes, the real pivot in monetary policy might have slipped right under their noses.
The uptick may explain why stocks, bitcoin and gold have rallied despite central bank warnings that they aren’t about to let up on hiking rates. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve again raised its benchmark rate, this time by 25 percentage points, but gave no indication that it would halt the tightening cycle anytime soon.
What caused the change, at least for the Fed, was the recent “debacle” in the U.K. sovereign-debt market, Howell said. Investors sold off the government’s bonds amid a dire economic outlook and political uncertainty. What ensued was what many analysts referred to as a “market meltdown” in what has historically been one of the safest corners in all of finance. Think it wasn’t a serious glitch? It ended up costing the prime minister her job.
“I think the most important factor above anything else is the integrity of the sovereign-debt market,” Howell told. “That’s what this is all about, really. If you get a blast like you got in Britain in the U.S., we’ve all got a problem. If that happened in the U.S., world financial markets would have crashed. You might say very loosely that we’re moving toward a world of yield curve control. Inflation is an issue, but it plays second fiddle to the workings of the sovereign-debt market.
The Caution Flag is out on the Speedway.
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