Bond market chaos to increase by March 2024

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The major issue with the bond market right now is the overwhelming amount of bond issuance combined with the notable absence of the usual buyers. In o

ther words, the illiquidity is already causing U.S. sovereign debt to trade like a microcap penny stock. This dysfunctional trading environment should become exponentially worse by the end of Q1 2024. The U.S. national debt is now $33.5T, and the interest on that debt is $712b so far this year. That interest expense is set to double over the next few years as our debt is rolling over at much higher interest rates.

And if the impossible does occur, the concomitant resulting recession would be so catastrophic that it might end up rendering the nation insolvent anyway. The other temporary salve would be if the delayed recession were to occur imminently. That would send investors scurrying out of equities and into the relative safety of U.S. bonds.

 

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