Treasurys poised to rally while stocks likely to fall, based on this rule

If Wall Street legend Bob Farrell’s first rule for investing holds true in the current market environment, it may mean the Treasury yields have peaked, while stocks are poised to fall from here, according to David Rosenberg, former chief North American economist at Merrill Lynch and now president of Rosenberg Research.

Earlier this month, the 10-year Treasury yield BX:TMUBMUSD10Y rose to close to 5%, the highest level since 2007, before pulling back to 4.874% on Tuesday. The yield is likely to continue to fall, noted Rosenberg. Meanwhile, the yield curve has been inverted for more than a year, an “abnormal” condition that only happens 15% of the time in history, Rosenberg noted.

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