China & US Auto Market — Chinese Auto Disrupting Everyone Else

In this article, I’m analyzing at a high level what is happening to the auto industry across propulsion types. I’ll break it down by region and also discuss individual companies. For the purposes of this article, I assume that level 5 self-driving and driverless taxis don’t come for a while. I don’t know if that is true, but since that would change everything, I will ignore it for now, even though tremendous progress is being made. This excellent video by Sam Evans inspired this article.

expanding their exports of both their world leading electrified offerings and their gas models that are uncompetitive in the Chinese domestic market With massive overcapacity in the Chinese market, especially at the joint ventures, they will try to use this capacity to produce cars for export to other markets. This may work, but will be somewhat hampered by protectionism in some markets, transportation costs, and some companies having obsolete products that may have trouble competing with the latest models.

The Korean manufacturers have had soft sales this year. They have lost some sales to Toyota and Honda. Many customers wanted a Toyota or Honda during the pandemic but couldn’t get one, so they took a Hyundai or Kia. Some of those buyers will stay, but some are returning to Toyota and Honda now that they have supply. Hyundai and Kia have designed a good mix of gas, hybrid, PHEV, and full electric cars, so they are well positioned to meet customers where they want to be.

Both domestic and legacy automakers will try to solve their overcapacity issues by exporting vehicles to other markets.

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