that Nvidia’s new AI chips are delayed. The report asserts that Nvidia’s upcoming artificial intelligence chips will be “delayed by three months or more due to design flaws,” resulting in a final flush of selling where the stock was down in 7 days.
We also look more closely at supply chain commentary, as there is one supply chain partner in particular that has reported a mysteriously high level of growth in a segment that is tied to Blackwell. We covered this forAs a reminder, we don’t make earnings calls, as many factors can affect stock price. Instead, we present quality research so that investors are fully informed to make their own decisions.
as compared to three months ago, leading to increasing overall capacity utilization rate for our leading-edge 3-nanometer and 5-nanometer process technologies in the second half of 2024.“slightly above mid-20s percent in US dollar terms” from the earlier “increase by low to mid-20% in U.S. dollar terms.”
There are three types of CoWoS architectures, which replaced multi-chip modules by scaling up the interposer area to fit multiple dies. Current CoWoS interposers are up to TSMC’s 3.3X reticle limit, with the goal of building interposers that can reach 8X the reticle limit by 2027. At theearlier this year, TSMC stated they will reach 5.5X reticle limit by 2025 for more than a 3.5X increase in compute power.
Due to TSMC’s CoWoS-L requiring more complexity and precision, it was already expected the validation and testing process would be time consuming. We had stated in the analysisthat “the advanced CoWoS packaging that is needed to combine logic system-on-chip with high bandwidth will take longer, and thus, it’s expected that Blackwell will be able to fully ship by Q4 this year or Q1 next year.
It's very true though that on the onset of the very first one coming to market, there might be constraints until we can meet some of the demand that's put in front of us.Yeah, That's right. And just remember that Hopper and Blackwell, they're used for people's operations and people need to operate today. And the demand is so great for Hoppers. They — most of our customers have known about Blackwell now for some time, just so you know.
Taking this full circle, let’s go back to what TSMC said in the most recent earnings call about CoWoS capacity: Specifically, it’s the Blackwell architecture that kicks off the need for liquid cooling. Most servers today are air-cooled yet AI necessitates a shift to liquid cooling as the H100 GPUs are already at 700W of power and Blackwell GPUs will see a 40% increase to 1,000W or higher. The B200 doubles the transistor count compared to the H100 and provides 20 petaflops of AI performance compared to the H100s 4 petaflops.
Per the CEO in last month’s earnings call, it was the months of June and July specifically when DLC started to ramp: “I mean as you know liquid cooling have been in the market for 30 years and market share compared with overall datacenter size always small, less than 1% or close to 1%, I would have to say. But just June and July two months alone, we shipped more than 1,000 racks to the market. And if you calculate 1,000 racks, AI rack is about more than 15% on a global datacenter new deployment.
SuperMicro offers liquid cooled H200 HGX systems, yet the H200s run up to 700W; not the 1000W that necessitates DLC. I have yet to see where the H200 was expected to drive overnight demand for DLC, rather, it’s been expected for some time that Blackwell would be the catalyst for the DLC market.: “I believe for June and July in last next two months we may ship at least 70% to 80% of liquid cooling compared with all the liquid cooling in the world.
Ultimately, reconfiguring lower priced SKUs will not matter to Wall Street if it’s based on outsized demand for GB200s. This theory hinges on Super Micro’s report, as it’s the sudden surge in direct liquid cooling sales that is truly mysterious.
The H200 is shipping now and is a force of its own with 141 GB of HBM3e memory, up from 80 GB of HBM3 memory in the H100. The GH200 superchip is also equipped with HBM3e and is shipping this quarter.
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