BENGALURU - Global funds in August recommended an increase to bonds and cash holdings to the highest since early 2013 at least and cut equities to the lowest since late 2016, penciling in a more than 45% chance of a significant correction in stock markets this year.
The drag on global growth from the tariff conflict has pushed the U.S. yield curve to invert further this month, with 30-year Treasury yields setting all-time lows and stocks that benefit during economic expansions falling the most on Wall Street this week, underscoring recession concerns. Overall equity exposure this month fell almost 1 percentage point to average 44.6% in the global balanced model portfolio from July’s 45.7%, the lowest since November 2016.
But both sets of respondents agreed the push and pull from expected policy easing and the U.S.-China trade war will whipsaw financial markets in coming months. “This is an extraordinary time for both the equity and bond markets. For those global investors that are seeking income there are very little options left without increasing your appetite for risk.”
When asked on the probability of a significant correction in equity markets this year, the median response was 46% and the most pessimistic view came in at 90%.
And Trump lies to prop the market up for a day....
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