Analysis: Investors' bold bets on Biden win pose market risk

With less than two weeks to go before the U.S. presidential election, investors may be placing too much confidence in a decisive win by Democratic challenger Joe Biden as his lead in opinion polls narrows.

In betting markets, Trump's chances of winning the election increased about 1 percentage point to 36.3per cent following Thursday's debate, but Biden maintains a significant lead, with a 64.4per cent chance of winning the election, according to data from RealClearPolitics. The technology-heavy Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 ETF and the S&P 500 tracking ETF SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust are each primed for a move of about 3per cent to 4per cent, Murphy said.

S&P 500 options expiring in December are implying a more muted level of stock swings than they did just two weeks ago, suggesting expectations for market turmoil following the election have come in.

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