The Risk To The Stock Market From An Inverted Yield Curve

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Here's a look at the risk to the stock market from an inverted yield curve

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March 9, 2020 in New York. - Trading on Wall Street was temporarily halted early March 9, 2020 as US stocks joined a global rout on crashing oil prices and mounting worries over the coronavirus.The suspension was triggered after the S&P 500's losses hit seven percent. Near 1340 GMT, the broad-based index was down more than 200 points at 2,764.21. , it may signal that a recession is coming and that can mean poor returns for stocks. Currently, the U.S.

find that the term spread, or the difference between 3-month and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields has historically been predictive of future U.S. economic growth. Hence, even if the yield curve does not invert, maybe the current flattening is a sign that slower growth may be on the horizon.shows that the U.S. yield curve inverting has predicted all but one of recent U.S. recessions since the 1970s, and without any obvious false positives. The exception was the recession of 1990, though the yield curve was still relatively flat before the recession. The model appears to work for many countries beyond the U.S. too, with varying degrees of accuracy.

 

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