Handicapping whether the stock market is at a turning point after Thursday's upside reversal

Such things are only knowable in retrospect. In the moment there literally is no answer – whether the market has turned depends on many economic developments, unforeseen bolts from the blue and crowd reactions to come. If it were a matter of purely random chance, then the U-turn from 2.4% opening drop in the S & P 500 Thursday after the disappointingly high CPI report to a 2.6% gain was probably not a decisive inflection.

But the precedent is what it is, and one could easily have said the same about the gloomy September seasonal record, which was borne out this year. When the market has been down a lot three-quarters of the way through the year, the following quarter and 12 months have tended to see stocks higher – with the glaring exception of 2008 as the financial system seized up into a credit crunch and vicious recession.

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