Why Valuation Support Is Unlikely To End The U.S. Bear Market

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U.S. stocks have fallen a lot in 2022, but on core valuation metrics they still aren't cheap. Those looking for value, should look overseas.

An important justification for why you might want to pay higher valuations for stocks, due to lower bond yields, just changed materially in 2022. So it’s unclear why U.S. stocks should trade at such a historically elevated valuation today. That potential issue becomes more apparent when you look overseas.U.S. markets may have elevated valuations compared to history, but many other international markets are more reasonably valued. For example,, has U.S.

Most other markets are currently trading below long-term average valuations today, the U.S. is one exception. That’s not encouraging, and may suggest that international markets will offer superior returns over the medium term. Germany, Japan and China all appear notably inexpensive currently, though stock markets in each country have specific issues.Still, stock valuations are considered at best medium-term indicators of performance. Current data suggests that U.S.

Such metrics are less helpful for short-term performance. Signs of improving economic news may well end the bear market well before valuation support changes the fortunes of the stock market.Also, the typical bear market is around 10 months long, we’re currently 10 months into this bear market, so we may be closer to the end of this bear market at this point. The average loss in a bear market is 36%.

If this bear market does end with attractive valuations compared to history, the U.S. market still has some way to fall. However, it may be that signs of improving economic news, changes the fortunes of U.S. stocks in 2023. Even so, despite recent declines, international markets appear a lot more attractive in valuation terms than the U.S. does today.

 

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