more than doubled 10-year Treasury yields — the rate underpinning global capital costs.
Vincent Mortier, chief investment officer at Amundi, Europe’s largest money manager, recommends defensive positioning for investors going into the New Year. He expects a bumpy ride in 2023 but reckons “a Fed pivot in the first part of the year could trigger interesting entry points.” One risk is that inflation stays too high for policymakers’ comfort and rate cuts don’t materialise. A Bloomberg Economics model shows a 100 per cent probability of recession starting by August, yet it looks unlikely central banks will rush in with policy easing when faced with cracks in the economy, a strategy they deployed repeatedly in the past decade.
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