"Based on our assumptions, we expect a relatively balanced market in 2023, with the estimated quarterly deficit-to-surplus ranging from -0.7mbpd to +0.8mbpd.
It added that a weak economic outlook or recession would bring down global demand significantly, although Opec's commitment to cut production could provide strong support for oil prices. "Our 1Q23 estimate drops to US$85/bbl as it will take some time before the impact of China’s border reopening is felt – it may pick up in 2Q23-3Q23," it said.
"Note that apart from global economic uncertainties, there is also an increased risk of a supply disruption following the commencement of the EU embargo on Russian oil and the implementation of a price cap.
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