A new bull market in stocks has taken off, and history shows the bear narrative is falling apart, according to Fundstrat's head of research Tom Lee.
In a note on Friday, Lee pointed to the strong gains the S&P 500 in recent months, with the benchmark stock index up 5.5% over the past quarter. Stocks were up a similar amount the previous period, surging 7% in the last quarter of 2022. That's a strong signal that equities have entered a new bull market, Lee said, as stocks have historically never been in a secular bear market after two straight quarters of gains. He predicted the rally would continue to run throughout April, taking the S&P 500 higher by 4%. Previously, he"Two consecutive quarters of gains validate the start of a new bull market.
The winning quarter for the stock market comes despite a month of turmoil in March, with early-year gains nearly erased by theBut volatility stemming from SVB has ebbed as banks begin to, Lee said, which suggests the turmoil isn't going to balloon into a full-blown crisis. The bank's collapse has also ramped up pressure on the Federal Reserve to pull back on rate hikes, another bullish development for stocks. Central bankers hiked interest rates aggressively last year to control inflation, a move that experts warned could push the economy into recession and sent stocks 20% lower in 2022.
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