The Geopolitical Forces Driving Today's Oil Market

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المملكة العربية السعودية أحدث الأخبار,المملكة العربية السعودية عناوين

Whether oil prices will continue to climb from here is ultimately a geopolitical question, one which pits OPEC+ and its allies against the economic interests of China and the West.

Start Trading CFDs Over 2,200 Different InstrumentsStart Trading CFDs Over 2,200 Different Instruments18 hours4 daysSimon Watkins is a former senior FX trader and salesman, financial journalist, and best-selling author. He was Head of Forex Institutional Sales and Trading for…

Ultimately, the price of oil going forward will be determined by the willingness and ability of these two interest groups to influence prices.There are three key determinants of how high oil prices will go from here. First, whether it is in the financial interests of the key players who have been pushing them higher to keep doing so. Second, whether it is in their geopolitical interests to keep doing so.

On the second determinant, though, there is a key geopolitical reason that such oil price rises cannot keep going on forever, and this is China – the core geopolitical ally of both Saudi Arabia and Russia. Part of the reason why China will not continue to support oil price rises from OPEC+ is that it is a net importer of oil, gas, and petrochemicals, so higher prices negatively affect its economy too.

The oil price being targeted within the next six months by the West, according to the E.U. and U.S. energy security sources spoken to exclusively by Oilprice.com last week, is a maximum of US$75-80 pb of Brent. During the presidency of Donald Trump, this was the top of the range, as it was seen as the price after which economic threat becomes apparent to the U.S. and its allies, and a political threat looms for sitting U.S. presidents.

 

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المملكة العربية السعودية أحدث الأخبار, المملكة العربية السعودية عناوين