-- With 4.3% unemployment, the UK economy would seem to be holding up well against a barrage of headwinds. But by one reliable measure, the jobless rate may already be telegraphing a recession.Canada’s Supreme Court Voids Most of Trudeau Environment Law
It has retrospectively been correct on every US recession since the 1960s and also has a strong record in the UK. It signaled every UK recession since the mid-1970s but was slightly late to the pandemic downturn because unemployment was depressed by the furlough program that subsidized workers’ wages. It also sent two false positives during the eurozone debt crisis and before the financial crisis.
Joblessness, depressed by pandemic labor shortages, is now starting to climb as the economy struggles under the weight of higher interest rates and the worst cost-of-living crisis for decades. Figures due later this month are forecast to show unemployment held at 4.3% in the three months to August. However, it is then expected to climb again heading into 2024, possibly topping 5%.
The central bank is growing increasingly confident that the jobs market is now responding to its 14 back-to-back interest rate rises, with survey data already showing weakness on wages. Money markets show traders think rates, at 5.25%, are at or close to a peak. Barbara McQuade explained why the former president now has a critical decision to make in his election interference case, which could end with even more scrutiny.
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