Goldman's Grim Forecast Shipping Industry Faces Prolonged Downturn

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Goldman Sachs predicts a more prolonged and severe shipping industry downturn as global container rates return to pre-Covid levels amidst weakening consumer demand and central banks' rate hikes.

Since global shipping peaked during the Covid pandemic, A.P. Moller-Maersk has warned about an emerging downturn in the container shipping market. Goldman now forecasts a lengthier and potentially more severe downturn for the shipping industry, recommending a sell for the Danish shipping giant 'We believe market expectations are still too complacent on the depth and duration of the coming shipping recession,' Goldman analyst Patrick Creuset told clients Monday morning.

' Creuset identified two major distinctions compared with previous bear markets, which might result in a steeper drop in EBIT margin than typically observed Industry balance sheets used to be highly levered meaning cash burn could not be sustained for long, whereas this time most carriers hold billions of USD in cash; The erosion of the alliance structures means carriers are incentivized to make sure their network is large and strong enough to potentially sustain services on their own, e.g.

 

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