The evolving picture on interest rates — dubbed "higher for longer" as expectations for rate cuts this year shift from a once-anticipated six reductions to perhaps three – will boost revenue for big banks while squeezing many smaller ones.
The evolving picture on interest rates — dubbed "higher for longer" as expectations for rate cuts this year shift from six reductions to perhaps three – will boost revenue for big banks while squeezing many smaller ones, adding to concerns for the group, according to analysts and investors.The focus for all of them will be how the shifting view on interest rates will impact funding costs and holdings of commercial real estate loans.
Smaller banks have been forced to pay up for deposits more so than larger ones, which are perceived to be safer, in the aftermath of thefailure last year. Rate cuts would've provided some relief for smaller banks, while also helping commercial real estate borrowers and their lenders. JPMorgan could raise its 2024 guidance for net interest income by an estimated $2 billion to $3 billion, to $93 billion, according to UBS analyst Erika Najarian.