The slowing of the Chinese economy, along with growing evidence of European growth under pressure, cast a big cloud of uncertainty over the global economy coming into 2019. Data released last week provided further support for the notion of short-term stabilization in China, but there isn’t yet a convincing longer-term case for higher growth, or for a less uncertain road for a global economy characterized by divergent performance among its most important economies.
Chinese export markets have become less dynamic, particularly in Europe. The U.S. has imposed tariffs on Chinese imports and threatened more in response to grievances about China’s use of nontariff barriers and intellectual property theft.
That’s also good news for the global economy and for markets. Projections released last week show that the International Monetary Fund expects more than two-thirds of the world to slow in 2019.
It’s also too early to declare the all-clear for the global economy. In addition to concerns about the sustainability of a Chinese economic activity bounce, there are important questions about the health of Europe that haven’t been answered by decisive policy actions. They include:
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