Analysis-Echoes of dotcom bubble haunt AI-driven US stock market

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Analysis-Echoes of dotcom bubble haunt AI-driven US stock market

NEW YORK - A U.S. stock rally supercharged by excitement over artificial intelligence is drawing comparisons with the dotcom bubble two decades ago, raising the question of whether prices have again been inflated by optimism over a revolutionary technology.While various metrics show stock valuations and investor exuberance have yet to hit peaks reached at the turn of the century, the similarities are easy to spot.

Echoing the dot-com boom, the information technology sector has swelled to 32% of the S&P 500's total market value, the largest percentage since 2000 when it rose to nearly 35%, according to LSEG Datastream. Just three companies, Microsoft, Apple (NASDAQ:However, tech stocks are more modestly valued now than at the peak of the dot-com bubble, trading at 31 times forward earnings, compared to as high as 48 times in 2000, according to Datastream.

Capital Economics analysts also note that the current rally is being fueled more by solid earnings outlooks rather than growing valuations, a sign that fundamentals are more of a driver this time. "Our base case is that this tech bubble won't burst until the valuation of the overall market has reached the sort of level that it did in 2000," Capital Economics analysts said in a note.

 

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