Fed On Course for September Rate Cut as Risks to Job Market Grow

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Jerome Powell,The Fed,Unemployment Rate

(Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signaled central bank officials are on course to cut interest rates in September unless inflation progress...

-- Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signaled central bank officials are on course to cut interest rates in September unless inflation progress stalls, citing risks of further labor-market weakening.Powell said policymakers are moving closer to lowering borrowing costs from a more than two-decade high, highlighting a growing confidence at the Fed to dial back its restraints on the economy.

Adjustments to the post-meeting statement, followed by Powell’s comments, underscored how policymakers are increasingly worried about unduly weakening the labor market, a shift from their laser focus on inflation for more than two years. The elevation of the labor market risks to an equal footing with inflation reflects both political and economic tension.

“It would take a major reversal in the inflation data to take September off the table,” said KPMG Chief Economist Diane Swonk. “This is a Fed who wants to give itself as much optionality as possible and the worst position for the Fed to be in is backed into a corner,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist at ADP. “What’s playing in the Fed’s favor is how low the unemployment rate continues to be, so they can afford to be patient.

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