Market implications of US election outcome scenarios: UBS

As the 2024 US election approaches, its outcome will likely have profound implications for financial markets. As per analysts at UBS Global Research, different election scenarios present varying risks and opportunities for equity markets, interest rates, and specific sectors.

The potential for higher corporate tax rates and the expiration of some 2017 personal tax cuts could exert downward pressure on consumer spending and business profits. Harris would need to rely heavily on executive actions and regulatory measures, but recent Supreme Court decisions could limit the scope of these actions.Minimal impact anticipated. The focus would remain on selective companies within renewables and energy efficiency, with a neutral to negative effect on fossil fuels and financial services.The fossil fuel industry might continue to face regulatory risks, while renewable energy sectors may see some relief.

Regulatory changes would be less pronounced, with significant fiscal policy changes likely blocked by Congress. The impact on markets would thus be mixed, balancing between reduced regulatory risks and higher tariffs.Fossil fuel and financial services sectors might benefit from decreased regulatory burdens. The consumer and technology sectors could face challenges from tariff-related impacts.

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