An analysis of the market sell-off: What's likely causing it and how worried you should be

The S&P 500 has dropped 3% from its record high. Economically cyclical groups have been purged. Bonds are leading stock returns one month into the year.

Bond yields have rushed toward their old lows, flattening the gap between very short-term and 10-year Treasuries. World growth expectations are rolling over, as China's work and travel restrictions to contain the Wuhan coronavirus defer the payout of the trade-peace dividend that investors expected after the U.S.-China trade deal.

. Something was bound to come along and prompt a pullback. As it happened, the viral outbreak arrived to do the job, in the process fogging the growth outlook and draining risk appetites.The action and Wall Street narrative recall the backdrop to the August-September market retrenchment. So, what does that period imply about the correct playbook now?

Tim Hayes, chief global investment strategist at Ned Davis Research, noted the worldwide recoil from risk and said, "To an increasing extent, breadth indicators reflect downside momentum, yet sentiment indicators are far from indicating that the excessive optimism has given way to extreme pessimism. And it has yet to become evident that the market has adjusted to the probability that the outlook for economic growth and earnings is less favorable than suggested by the stretched valuations.

Last year, of course, the Fed delivered three rate cuts, and after it went on hold and U.S. GDP remained roughly at 2%, the markets effectively concluded that it could enjoy the gain of easier money without the pain of a punishing downturn.

Really, an analysis of what’s causing it?

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