NEW YORK: A bounce in stocks is likely to face a test in the coming weeks as investors try to gauge whether countries and U.S. states emerging from lockdowns can arrest a sharp fall in economic growth without provoking a resurgence of coronavirus cases.
Investors are eager to look forward after the devastation the shutdowns have already wrought. Data this week showed the U.S. economy contracted in the first quarter at its sharpest pace since the Great Recession. One state in focus is Georgia, which lifted a ban on eating in restaurants this week. Texas and Florida, two of the most populous U.S. states, also announced plans to start reopening imminently.
The metrics investors will be looking at include state-level information on unemployment claims or less-conventional data, such as online restaurant reservations, according to Mona Mahajan, U.S. investment strategist at Allianz Global Investors. “Typically, when you come out of a recession you do see the cyclicals start to lead a little bit,” Mahajan said.