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BUSINESS MAVERICK: UCT study finds soaring prices for illicit cigarettes burn smokers, suggests sin tax hike

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The second online survey of smokers under lockdown by UCT’s Research Unit on the Economics of Excisable Products (Reep) has found that the price of cigarettes has soared 250% since licit sales were banned in March, and that steep prices are the biggest incentive for quitting. It recommends the government lift the ban and raise sin taxes.

The study, lead-authored by Professor Corné van Walbeek, was based on an online survey of 23,000 respondents between 4 and 19 June. It finds the ban, while “well-intentioned,” has failed “in what it was supposed to do… The authors, therefore, recommend that the government lifts the ban on the sale of cigarettes expeditiously.”

Yet the survey found that “the percentage of respondents indicating that they regularly shared individual cigarettes has increased from 1.7% pre-lockdown to 8.9% during lockdown. This is an increase of 430%.” So a lot more zol is getting shared. That could only come as a surprise to someone who has completely lost touch.

“Around 93% of continuing smokers in the survey purchased cigarettes during the lockdown. This is slightly higher than the 91% reported in the first survey,” it said. So most people are still smoking and they are paying a lot more to do so — 250% more on average, according to the study, which found that a pack of 20 cigarettes now costs on average R114.

 

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BUSINESS MAVERICK OP-ED: Little tax room to manoeuvre as Covid-19 pandemic triggers bleaker contractionSouth Africa’s growth outlook for 2020/2021 was bleak even before the Covid-19 pandemic. Now, with the contraction triggered by the pandemic, there is expected to be, at least, a 7.2% contraction in the South African economy, with widespread losses of jobs and livelihoods, food insecurity and business insolvencies – and a shrinking tax base.
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