Friday the Nasdaq 100 closed under its 50-day moving average for the first time in 105 days. According to Bespoke Investment Group, this was only the tenth time since 1985 the index stayed above its 50-day average for at least 100 days. The returns thereafter were weak on average over the next month or so.
And do professional investors who've been complaining for months about the narrowness of the market and the need for a pullback seem a bit too satisfied and comfortable with the way this market break has played out? Do folks need to be more scared before a reliable low takes hold? Unclear but worth asking.The silver lining in all this is, very little of the recent weakness has the look of the markets sniffing out imminent economic problems or financial stress, at least so far.
Erratic action in the market's biggest, most widely owned stocks, after having grown to unwieldy proportions, is not exactly a positive. But relative strength in the equal-weighted S&P 500, transportation shares, heavy industrials, housing-related names, consumer cyclicals and basic materials stocks argue against index weakness being taken as an economic warning.
Nothing has changed about the reliable accommodation of the Fed, bond yields below the inflation rate, the scarcity value of long-term corporate cash flow growth and the relative caution of Wall Street strategists – all supportive factors for the market.
'textbook correction' =/= 'payback'
Excellent balanced report Mike! I’m convinced that the catalyst for further weakness is still to come. The known unknowns are all still there...China retaliation, Brexit, Covid-19 acceleration, elections.....but I’m scared of an unknown unknown....economic stress EEM. 20%cash🙏
stocks go Back & Forth ... as usual 😉
that's fine, just let me know you're going to do that yesimbitter bullish
So nothing to do with a tanking economy, record unemployment, a destructive trade war thats only getting started etc? Ok. keep telling urself that.
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The stock market isn’t the economy. It’s just a big casino and the house always wins.
Only the greedy care!
Hahahahaha You vested interest permabull charlatans are an utter disgrace Just the start - keep selling you shills
This is Trump's economy. A messy roller coaster ride on the stock market that he brags about.
Stocks need to revert back to the mean which means a correction much more severe than this.
Went straight up for a month! What do you expect ?