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Investors' bold bets on Biden win pose market risk

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With less than two weeks to go before the U.S. presidential election, investors may be placing too much confidence in a decisive win by Democratic challenger Joe Biden as his lead in opinion polls narrows.

U.S. Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden and his wife Jill Biden arrive at New Castle Airport, following the final 2020 U.S. presidential campaign debate, in New Castle, Delaware, U.S., October 23, 2020. REUTERS/Leah Millis

In betting markets, Trump’s chances of winning the election increased about 1 percentage point to 36.3% following Thursday’s debate, but Biden maintains a significant lead, with a 64.4% chance of winning the election, according to data from RealClearPolitics. Options prices suggest the ETF’s shares could log a one-day move of as much as 11% in either direction once the election results are out, according to calculations by Christopher Murphy, co-head of derivatives strategy at Susquehanna Financial Group.

Utility firms, tax-exempt municipal bonds, industrials and material stocks may also be vulnerable, said Justin Waring, investment strategist at UBS Global Wealth Management. Equity and interest-rate options “are pricing in that Biden wins the presidential election,” said Amy Wu Silverman, equity derivatives strategist at RBC Capital Markets. “They’re fairly complacent on that, as well as the idea of a ‘blue sweep.’”

 

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Oh it's a win win. Either Biden gets in or the economy finally dies. It's funny either way

Bets on Trump pose far greater health risks.

Sure does. That is a pretty ignorant bet

🇺🇸 Democrats Socialists 🤝 Communist Party of China 🇨🇳

Most Americans don't care bout the markets because they can't invest. If you want proof the markets don't reflect the economy just look at the market response during the pandemic when the economy collapsed and the markets went sky high. The markets don't put food on the table

China is preparing Hunter’s new bank account

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