DBRS Morningstar expects GDP growth to be positive across Europe in 2021, but analysts suggested that the still difficult environment may lead banks to tighten lending criteria and therefore limit revenues.
"However, amid ultra-low rates, potentially higher funding costs, and other income such as net fees and commissions being penalised by lockdowns, the pressure on revenues is likely to continue."An improvement in consensus macroeconomic expectations in most geographies since the third quarter of 2020 is expected to provide a supportive backdrop for banks, according to Barclays analysts, particularly with regard to cash set aside for expected loan losses.
"However, we believe that management teams are likely to take a conservative approach at 4Q20 given ongoing risks associated with new lockdowns, and instead we expect most banks to top-up their loan loss provisions." "The impact of the pandemic on European banks' asset quality and cost of risk in 2021 will depend on the length of economic restrictions and overall economic impact as well as on any additional support measures to prevent a major deterioration in borrowers' payment capacity."In December, the European Central Bank and the U.K.
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