For all the fanfare made when Prime Minister Boris Johnson struck a trade deal with Brussels on Christmas Eve, the inescapable reality of leaving the European Union's customs and regulatory territory has already started to bite. The fact that the deal was only agreed one week before it came into effect meant that dangerous disruption to countless businesses that relied on seamless supply chains was inevitable.
"From the outset we were clear that we would be leaving the customs union and single market which meant that there would be new processes after the end of the Transition Period. These were widely communicated through our public information campaign." The real-world impact of this means that some exporters have had the European market cut off overnight. Almost every day, pictures circulate on social media of virtually empty fish markets and boats tied up. Withers has heard stories of Scottish boats sailing 48 hours to process catches in Denmark, just to get their stock into the single market.
The scenes in Scotland might not be as dramatic as the food shortages and lines of backlogged trucks that many predicted post-Brexit, but the damage is already showing up in economic data. Brexit issues are exacerbating a slowdown caused by pandemic restrictions, IHS Markit said on Friday, and lengthening suppliers' delivery times. While 33% of manufacturers reporting a drop in exports linked the decline directly to the pandemic, some 60% linked the drop to Brexit, according to IHS.
This could result in a gradual reduction in the variety of fresh produce available to British shoppers. According to a spokesperson for Logistics UK,"in the short term, while supply chains sort themselves out, it may be that we return to a more seasonal approach to shopping or have a more limited range to choose from." This could mean that after decades of fresh fruit and vegetables at all times of the year, Brits might have to start seeing strawberries as summer treat, for example.
Jerzewska says that her clients are reporting numerous complaints, but most worryingly a failure of support from the UK government to resolve their issues."Getting an answer to a technical question could take 48 hours, which is obviously a problem for fresh produce. People in the call centers can only really point to guidance, but the guidance isn't currently fit for purpose."
There isn't much optimism that things will improve in the near future among moderate Conservatives. Many are extremely worried that the gradual decline caused by Brexit will ultimately lead to Europe trying to lure Britain's golden goose to the continent: The City of London, which hosts many of the world's biggest banks.