Still, Mr Miller insisted, the future looks brighter. He predicted “a multi-year upcycle” beginning in 2022. On January 22nd Olivier Le Peuch, chief executive of Schlumberger, a big rival, echoed this sentiment, declaring “a new growth cycle”. A day earlier executives at Baker Hughes, the third big provider, sounded a similarly chirpy note. Is this optimism misplaced?
At the same time newcomers piled in, particularly across America’s shale fields. The industry’s global ranks swelled, from about 100 companies in 2014 to nearly 1,000 last year, reckons Muqsit Ashraf of Accenture, a consultancy. Competition meant that most of the rewards from improved efficiency went to customers, in the form of lower prices. Returns collapsed. The sector’s gross operating profits fell by half from 2014 to 2019, according to Bernstein, a research firm. Then came covid-19.