The organization that in the U.S. says whether the economy is in a recession or not seems to be asleep on the job.
Over the last 20 years, there has been a 73% correlation between the annual, rolling gains of the S&P 500 SPX, +0.09% and the level of the ISM manufacturing index. That makes sense — you would expect growth assets, like stocks, to be correlated to measures of economic growth. “As growth peaks over the next three months, we expect discretionary investors to pare their positioning from extremely elevated levels, and see retail investors as unlikely to buy the dip. Using the historical experience as a guide argues for a near -6% pullback if growth flattens out near the peak, a bigger -8.4% pullback on an inverted-V in growth,” said strategists led by Binky Chadha.
Cruise operators including Carnival CCL, +5.70% and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings NCLH, +5.28% extended Tuesday’s gains in premarket trade, on optimism over when bookings can continue. Irish discount airline Ryanair Holdings RYAAY, -0.32% said European travel restrictions will mean passenger traffic at the low end of its guidance.
germbanks sheesh we spoke about this LOL
I don’t think that’s all that likely, especially if by that time the Biden Infrastructure plan gets passed by congress, fueling one of the largest job booms in years. Replacing ALL lead pipes across the country would alone give companies coast-to-coast a huge influx of money/jobs