Get ready for $178 billion of selling ahead of the capital-gains tax hike. These are the stocks most at risk.

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Analysts at Goldman Sachs — in October — ran the numbers on the stock market impact of previous capital-gains tax hikes. While there is only a modest impact on the stock market as a whole, momentum stocks usually get socked before they are levied.

Avid readers of this column may have had a sense of déjà vu on Thursday. Last month, a Need to Know column explored what would pay for President Joe Biden’s infrastructure spending — and quoted a former Biden aide, Evercore ISI analyst Sarah Bianchi, who said it would “probably include nearly doubling capital-gains taxes on those with income over $1 million.” Not that it was any state secret — the Biden campaign’s website suggested such a move too.

One question now is whether the closely divided Senate will go for it. “Frankly, I suspect that these proposed tax increases will be knocked down at the hands of Senator [Joe] Manchin who remains the ‘swing’ vote in the Senate,” said Louis Navellier, the chairman of Navellier & Associates. An alternative is that the Senate could increase the capital-gains tax, but by a smaller amount — analysts at Goldman Sachs suggest they’ll settle at 28%, up from 20% currently.

The last time capital-gains taxes were hiked, in 2013, the wealthiest households sold 1% of their equity assets, the Goldman analysts found. According to the Federal Reserve’s distributional financial account data, the top 1% held $17.79 trillion of equities and mutual funds in the fourth quarter of 2020 — so a 1% selling of stocks this time would be $178 billion.

 

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JoeBiden SecYellen don't raise the capital gains tax . . . you will devastate 401ks and IRAs

To be rolled over into which new investments?

I am hoping this capital gains tax proposal provides a nice opportunity to buy the dip. It did not happen on Friday.

We must remove Biden from office. He is out of touch with reality. We demand he cut capital gain rate in half.

Learn to trade the volatility from transparent traders here

So 0.4% of taxpayers will sell 1% of their holdings, oh please, spare me the drama. So 0.5M ppl hold $18T while biggest 401K has 6M ppl hold $800B. That 401K pgm holds 4% equivalent of what is held by the millionaires (and above). I say go ahead, let rich folks sell their 1%.

I mean seriously were Trump tweets that hurtful Libs?

What a bs article...NO TAX HIKE WILL PASS THE SENATE

I hope you libs are happy.

Foreshadowing for shorts? 🤔 Bears bulls

It was not even discussed inside of the Committee. MMs probably paid for this article. 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

Is it really cause of the tax hike? Cause that was talked about last year? This is to start covering mass amounts of shorts in my eyes!

Wild_Bill32 you made the list!

The rich bastards that get the capital gains do not deserve it. The object is the give companies revenue. The companies reinvest that money in equipment and such. The company pays a dividend. Rich power brokers punish companies that reinvest. How much money is enough? So sad!!!!

How about you be honest about what the rate increase means? This only increases the capitalgains rate on speculative trading, not long term capital gains. The markets are unstable with speculative trading.This move actually is long term bullish for the markets. analyzeyourworld

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