Third: strategic releases would probably end, but are not guaranteed to do so. Countries like the U.S., Japan and others are concerned about high inflation and would not want to cease releases if it would mean less downward pressure on oil prices. November elections looming in the U.S. will certainly be a factor in any decision. Uncertainty remains, however, about when countries resume filling their strategic reserves which could either support or push up prices.
Fourth: There will be a pullback in several areas once it becomes clear that oil and gas prices are not going to remain elevated. In particular, recall that in 2008, when the price of oil hit $145, there were numerous voices insisting that this represented a sea-change for demand. The Exxon CEO Rex Tillerson thought U.S. gasoline demand had peaked and climate change activists blamed the problems in the U.S.
Finally, it seems likely that the end of the war would reduce somewhat the desire to end or lighten sanctions on Iran and/or Venezuela, which would have had the effect of adding perhaps 1 mb/d of oil to the market in a few weeks and ½ mb/d over the course of six to nine months from Venezuela. The negotiations with Iran preceded the war in Ukraine and could be successfully concluded but are currently stalled by Iranian insistence on guarantees from the U.S.
The upshot is that an end or lessening of the conflict in Ukraine would mean more oil on the market and lower inventories at sea and in Russian storage, which will certainly cause oil prices to drop, especially if traders are convinced the prospect of European oil sanctions has sharply receded. With little or no demand effect, oil prices should drop at least $10 from current levels, and WTI could even test $80 by early summer if it appears the oil demand during the U.S.
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